The next big thing will be…
First it was desktop computers. Then laptops. iPods were a big deal. Now it’s iPhones and smartphones in general. What’s next?
For the answer you have to look toward the people in charge of our future – today’s children, teens and young adults.
In case you haven’t noticed, all the preferred media of my generation are dying a rapid death. Forget glacial evolution – it’s more like violent upheaval. We know youngsters don’t buy music albums in a record store but today’s kids don’t read newspapers, listen to radio, watch television or make phone calls.
Youngsters’ primary form of communication is texting. Fitting all their thought and dreams into a severely-limited number of characters, numbers and symbols. As for music – they’ll buy/download a limited-fidelity version of a particular song (or two) and play them on a small portable device. If they like a particular TV show they watch it streaming on their computers.
They have no need for “old” methods. They like their way better. That’s fine – each successive generation rebels from the last. But this massive and rapid switchover is creating an incredible ripple effect in our society – including an unprecedented loss of job opportunities in a number of fields.
As for newspapers, if people don’t read them anymore then advertisers don’t advertise in them – they begin losing money – and at some point go out of business.
Radio? Good radio in most U.S. markets died years and years ago. There are a few exceptions (WBGO, WFUV, WNYTC, and WQXR in New York) but for the most part, listeners now prefer 30-second previews of songs online then playing that music on portable storage devices. The death of proper-sounding home music playback systems is sad – to say the least.
Television? Nobody watches anymore. Viewership is plummeting. Advertisers don’t advertise. You get the idea. There are many reasons (too many choices, mediums, lack of good programming, etc.) but the effect is chilling.
For instance, TV stations have begun to cut back on expensive news programming. If you haven’t had the pleasure of watching what has happened to WNBC news broadcasts. New York’s Channel 4 basically fired everyone in the newsroom, late last winter, then hired back the few people they wanted to keep. They were hired back at basically slave wages (for someone living/working in New York City).
All you need to know is they’re getting exactly what they’re paying for. WNBC moved newscasts to a new studio which looks and sounds horrible whether you’re watching on an older TV or one of the new, flat-screen models. Some of the new young, cheaper-to-hire reporters/anchors are laughable. WNBC’s local news coverage is now weak at best. But, they way they see it they now have a 24-hour cable “lifestyle” channel being produced by the same crew for the same monetary outlay.
Also, since so many people are watching “TV” on their computers sales of flat-screen TVs are falling as well. Recently, a number of young adults have bragged that they don’t even own a television. “What for?”
On my recent travels I’ve spoken with a number of kids, pre-teens, teens and their parents about cell phone usage. Here in the U.S., Great Britain, France and visitors from the Far East everyone – and I mean everyone I’ve spoken with says youngsters have no need for the phones in their smartphones.
The only time they make a voice call is to check-in with their parents. Their main mode of communication/conversation is texting.
I’ve heard employers complaining they’re finding that youngsters entering today’s job market have trouble reading, writing and speaking in sentences. Recent applicants know how to contract words and thoughts for texting but can’t fully express themselves in any other manner. I’ve been warned that this is the norm not just a few isolated cases. One or two employers called the problem an “epidemic.”
So, what is the next big thing? Based on all of the above, it won’t be smartphone devices like iPhones but similar devices like the iPod touch.
As wireless 3G/4G networks get faster and faster our portable devices will become more and more data centric. For instance, the iPod touch and Microsoft’s upcoming Zune HD will be the inspiration for future products.
Users will be able to text, surf the Web, find nearby landmarks with GPS, listen to music, take photos, shoot videos, watch their favorite TV shows – and, if they ever need to make a voice call there will be easy to access VoIP services.
Cellular phones as we know them will go the way of newspapers, Morse Code, radio and over-the-air television.